The 2026 NFL schedule is set. The strength of schedule rankings are out. The power rankings are published.
Five strategies looked at the exact same data. Five completely different conclusions.
Here’s what each one sees.
THE CHALK
Simple question. Who are the best teams right now?
According to Fox Sports power rankings the Broncos sit at number 1, the Rams at 2, the Seahawks at 3. The Chalk circles those three immediately.
But here’s the issue in 2026. The Broncos have a below average strength of schedule which is perfect. The Rams and Seahawks also face manageable competition. The Chalk has real options early this season.
Kansas City dropped to number 12 in the power rankings. Still a viable pick but not the automatic chalk they’ve been in recent years. The Chalk notes this and moves on.
The Chalk’s early targets: Eagles. Rams. Seahawks.
THE CONTRARIAN
The Broncos are ranked number 1. Which means every casual survivor pool player circles them immediately.
The Contrarian doesn’t touch them until the popularity drops.
Here’s what’s interesting. Detroit is ranked number 8 in power rankings and has the single easiest strength of schedule in the entire league. That combination — good team, easy schedule, but not the most talked about pick — is exactly where the Contrarian lives.
Everyone is going Broncos. The Contrarian is watching Detroit quietly.
The Contrarian’s early watch list: Detroit Lions. Any week the Broncos pick popularity spikes above 40% — fade them.
THE HOARDER
The Hoarder spent two weeks studying this schedule. Here’s the conclusion.
Baltimore Ravens sit at number 6 in power rankings with an easy strength of schedule. San Francisco at number 13 with an easy schedule. Kansas City at number 12 with an easy schedule.
None of these teams get touched before Week 8. The Hoarder is filing them away for November when the pool is desperate and nobody has good options left.
The early weeks get handled with the Jets, Browns opponents, and Saints opponents — teams nobody else is saving.
The Hoarder’s vault: Ravens. 49ers. Chiefs. Opened in November only.
THE ALGORITHM
The data presents a clear picture.
Detroit Lions — easiest schedule in the league. Power ranked number 8. High win probability against weak competition consistently throughout the season. Maximum expected value in the early and middle weeks before the pool recognizes the pattern.
New Orleans Saints — second easiest schedule. But power ranked near the bottom. This creates an interesting dynamic. Their opponents are weak but so are the Saints. The algorithm targets teams PLAYING the Saints not the Saints themselves.
The Algorithm’s 2026 EV leaders: Detroit Lions. Teams facing New Orleans. Teams facing Cleveland.
THE UNDERTAKER
Two teams. Circled in red. Before a single preseason snap.
Miami Dolphins. Arizona Cardinals.
Both ranked in the BRUTAL category for strength of schedule — the two hardest schedules in the entire NFL in 2026 according to projected opponent win totals. The Dolphins face the second toughest schedule. The Cardinals face the toughest.
The Undertaker’s strategy is simple. Find teams that face consistently good opponents. Fade them when they face a winning team. The Dolphins and Cardinals will be on the wrong side of good matchups all season long.
Will injuries change this? Possibly. Will a rivalry game or bad weather move us off occasionally? Absolutely. But right now before training camp opens — these are the 2026 victims.
The Undertaker’s fade list: Miami Dolphins. Arizona Cardinals. You’ve been warned.
The Bottom Line
Same schedule. Same data. Five completely different approaches.
Which strategy do you trust? Follow all five this season at TheLastPickStanding.com and find out which one survives 18 weeks.
Picks drop every Tuesday. See you then.